Tuesday, December 29, 2009

SGX Breadth again

Chart on previous post had an error, the stocks were not filtered by price correctly. It was supposed to be only sub-20c stocks, but all were included, and warrants were also included.

Here is one counting one month (25 day) new closing highs for all SGX stocks:

If we suspect the 'breakout' is caused by too many penny stocks flying, this one excludes stocks that closed below 20c on each day being calculated for:

This one excludes stocks that closed below 50c on each day being calculated for:

Just in case we still suspect penny stocks, this counts only the ones trading below 20c on the day being calculated for. ie: opposite of second graph.

I can only conclude, the rally in the last 2 days was broad based. And it was not based based on penny stocks.

SGX breadth jumps

Note: Graph here has an error, see next post.

In the last 2 days' rally, SGX breadth jumped significantly. Scattered dots below are the number of stocks above 20c (as of today's price) making 1 month highs. Looking at the 'peak' readings (dots marked with green circles) breadth has been declining since August. Last 2 days shows a clear break in this trend.

Is this the start of a new bull? My guess is... yes.

The number of new highs, although larger than the previous 4 months, is still a lot lower than in the Apr and Aug peaks, so this rally could have some way to run. Also, the SGX top 20 vol shows only 5 stocks below 20c, so there isn't too much junk flying yet.


I need to be more aggressive in buying. How?
  • The mkt does seem overbought after 6 straight up days (US indices), should I wait for a pullback? Would only be expecting a brief 1-2 day pullback, similiar to the Mar rally.
  • Many stocks are now quite far (mabye 10%) away from their support (cut-loss levels).
  • Maybe I should just double up my existing successful bets, which were small, as bought in a non-trending market.

US mkt: start of new rally?

Last week, all 3 indexes broke out of a 6 week trading range. The only problem is that vol was low due to the Christmas hols, so hard to confirm if this is real. I also don't have market breadth figures.
All 3 indexes currently up 6 consecutive days....is the market overbought? If we are in a bull, I only expect short 1-2 day pullbacks, similar to the Mar rally.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Bought Straits Asia

Bought 3 lots @ $2.52 yesterday, 28th Dec 09.

Was bought to my attention by my broker 8 days ago - a broken inverse H&S:

Neckline (cut-loss) at $2.33.

I bought yesterday, No real reason for the timing except that I'm looking for stocks with a clear cut loss point. It was on top volume list. The market is crazy now.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Bought Yangzijang

Bought 7 lots on @$1.18 on 18th Dec 09.

Hoping for a 'bounce back' after correction in uptrend. Can't say if it has worked yet. Cut-loss would be at $1.12.

Bought NOL

My broker called to recommend this one and I remembered it was another triangle. She recommended at $1.54, but I only got in a few hours later.

Bought 6 lots @ $1.58 on 18th Dec 09.

Bought Hong Fok

Bought 13 lots @ 64.5c on 7th Dec 09.

Noticed it as it had a triangle with well defined support, up days on higher volume and MACD-H Divergence. Bought after it seemed to break the triangle - the price has not moved for two weeks since.